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1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football cards are some of the sport’s most elusive parallels to come out of the 1990s. Singles from this 15-card set hold a print run of just 5 copies and were inserted into packs of 1998 Topps Stars Football at a rate of 1:8144. Let’s look at this from a statistics standpoint.
*Note: There are no guarantees when opening packs. The following are estimates based on the parameters regarding known insertion ratios. There’s always a possibility of pulling duplicates, which in such cases, will alter the estimated numbers stated here.
Statistics:
There are 24 packs in a box of 1998 Topps Stars Football. Let’s calculate how many boxes you’d have to open to pull any card from the Gold Rainbow parallel set.
- 8144 packs / 24 packs = 339.33, rounded up to 340 boxes
You would have to open 340 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football to pull of any card in the 15-card 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set.
Let’s take this a bit further by calculating how many boxes you would have to open to pull a particular card in the set.
- 340 boxes * 15 cards = 5100 boxes
To pull the Ryan Leaf card, for example, I’d have to open 5100 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football.
Cost:
As I write this, a box of 1998 Topps Stars Football runs, on average, $150. Let’s calculate how much it would cost to pull any card from the Gold Rainbow set.
- 340 boxes * $150 = $51,000
To pull any card in the 15-card 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set, I’d have to spend $51,000 on 340 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football.
If I wanted to pull a particular card in the 15-card 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set, here’s how much it would set me back:
- 5100 boxes x $150 = $765,000
To pull any particular one card in the 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set, you’d have to open 5100 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football, which would cost you $765,000, or just over 3/4 of a million dollars.
Time:
Now, let’s say it takes you 20 minutes to open a single box of 1998 Topps Stars Football.
Time it would take you to open 340 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football to pull any card in the 15-card 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set:
- 340 boxes * 20 minutes = 6800 minutes
- 6800 minutes / 60 minutes = 113.33 hours
- 113.33 hours / 8 hours = 14.17 days
Time it would take you to open 340 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football to pull a particular card in the 15-card 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football card set:
- 5100 boxes * 20 minutes = 102,000 minutes
- 102,000 minutes / 60 minutes = 1700 hours
- 1700 hours / 8 hours = 212.5 days
Conclusion:
To pull any card in the 15-card set of 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football cards, I would have to open 340 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football, which would cost me $51,000 and take me 14.17 days if I dedicated 8 hours a day.
To pull a particular card and assuming no duplication, in the 15-card set of 1998 Topps Stars Luminaries Gold Rainbow football cards, I would have to open 5100 boxes of 1998 Topps Stars Football, which would cost me $765,000 and take me 212.5 days if I dedicated 8 hours a day.
To see what’s currently on eBay from 1998 Topps Stars, click here.
Set Information:
| Set | Total Cards | Print Run(s) | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze | 15 | 100 | 1:407 |
| Silver | 15 | 75 | 1:513 |
| Gold | 15 | 50 | 1:814 |
| Gold Rainbow | 15 | 5 | 1:8144 |
Checklist:
| Card # | Player(s) | Card # | Player(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | Brett Favre | L9 | Jerry Rice |
| L2 | Steve Young | L10 | Junior Seau |
| L3 | John Elway | L11 | Bruce Smith |
| L4 | Barry Sanders | L12 | John Randle |
| L5 | Terrell Davis | L13 | Peyton Manning |
| L6 | Eddie George | L14 | Ryan Leaf |
| L7 | Herman Moore | L15 | Curtis Enis |
| L8 | Tim Brown |
Great and informative post once again.
1) Where do you find the odds of pulling various inserts? Do you have to locate a pack of the product, or is there an online source somewhere that tells you the odds? I especially have trouble finding insert odds for various basketball and football card inserts.
2) After opening box after box, you would have tons of great cards that you could sell. So even if you spent $765,000, you could make some of that money back by selling a lot of great cards that you would now have in your possession. Of course, it would take a lot of time to sell these cards…. Let’s say each box returns on average around $70 worth of cards (not sure how realistic that number is), perhaps that means you would only be out about $400,000 at the end of the day to guarantee the Leaf card.
Thanks, Brian!
Odds can be found in a variety of places:
1. Packs and boxes often reveal insertion ratios
2. Google searches
3. BaseballCardPedia
4. Beckett Media website and publications
RE: Return.
That’s difficult to determine. The hope is $70 per box but that may not always be the case. I certainly agree that lots of great stuff will be pulled out of 5100 boxes and it would be a lot of fun to put together sets.
I would be really really careful using the word “guarantee”. In reality, you are not guaranteed anything even if the odds say you opened enough product to satisfy the stated odds. For instance, there is a possibility you open 340 boxes and not pull a Luminaries Rainbow. It could be in box #353. The odds that you pull one Luminaries Rainbow in 340 boxes is good, but certainly not guaranteed.
Also, to hit a specific card the odds are 1:5,100 boxes. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to open 5,400 boxes and not hit the SPECIFIC card you after because statistically speaking, you are more likely to pull at least one Luminaries Rainbow duplicate (and maybe more) before pulling 1 copy of each card in the 15 card set. Everywhere the word guarantee is used in the article is simply incorrect. Good read otherwise.
That’s a great point. Duplicates would certainly through those numbers off. Revisions to language have been made.